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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.